Short summary
Through 2025 global wheat prices have mostly stayed under pressure despite occasional spikes. The main reason is supply. A run of large harvests and rising stocks around the world have left the market with more wheat than buyers need right now. That basic imbalance is why prices are not pushing higher even when there are short-term bullish headlines.
Where prices stand in 2025 and Supply
Markets have shown volatility day-to-day, but the broad trend across mid and late 2025 has been softer wheat prices in many regions. Global cereal and wheat price indices were flat to down in recent months as harvests came in strong in key exporters. That trend is reflected in agency price indexes and futures activity.
The single most important fact is production for record crops and rising global stocks. USDA analysis for 2025 points to record or near record global wheat production in the latest outlook, with major exporters harvesting large crops. That increases the available supply pool and puts downward pressure on prices.
At the same time, world ending stocks estimates were adjusted up in key reports, leaving markets with a larger buffer of carryover wheat. In September updates the USDA and market commentators noted revisions to global ending stocks that dampened futures.
Country-level stocking also matters. For example, India reported wheat inventories well above government targets in September 2025, which reduces near-term import demand and export buying from other countries. When big potential importers hold large domestic stocks, the global demand pull is weaker.
Demand: steady but not runaway
Global demand is rising slowly, but not fast enough to absorb the extra supply. Some demand pockets grew in 2025 — for feed and industrial use in certain markets — but overall import demand has been dented where local production increased. China, for instance, boosted output, reducing its net import needs in some months. That further removed a potential price-supporting buyer from the market.
Conclusion — what this means for traders and buyers
For sellers and origin-side players the message is clear: competition will be strong and margins tight unless a real supply disruption appears. For buyers, the current environment is favorable for negotiating and building stocks at reasonable prices. Keep watching the big official reports and harvest progress in Russia, the EU, the United States, and major importers such as China and India. Those data points move the market.
For more detailed report USDA Economic Research Service
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