The sunflower oil market October 2025 opened with strength across the Black Sea region. Tight supply from Ukraine, weather challenges, and limited export activity supported prices through mid-month.
However, growing Russian output, softer global vegetable-oil benchmarks, and cautious import demand suggest prices could stabilize or ease into November.
Ukraine’s Crop and Supply Situation
Ukraine’s sunflower crop forecast was cut to 11.4 million tons, the lowest in a decade. Drought conditions in the south and harvest delays elsewhere reduced output, while power outages and logistics disruptions continued to limit crush and exports.
Processors have focused on domestic demand, leaving only small export volumes available. Farmer selling remains thin as producers wait for more clarity on transport and power conditions.
Current Price Levels (Mid-October 2025)
- CPT Ukraine (ports): Bids around $1,245–1,260/MT
- FOB Black Sea (Ukraine): Offers holding near $1,260–1,270/MT
- CIF Mersin: Sellers around $1,300/MT, buyers $1,280–1,285/MT
- European FOB (Black Sea–EU ports): Around $1,470/MT, reflecting stronger import demand and reduced local stocks
- Sunflower meal: Steady at $278 CIF Egypt and $280 CIF Italy
Trading remains thin, with few large parcels confirmed. Exporters cite limited liquidity and ongoing delays in vessel loading.
Russia’s Role and Export Policy
Russia’s sunflower sowing area reached about 9.7 million hectares, and yields look stable. This could partly offset Ukraine’s smaller harvest.
Export activity from Russia was minimal in early October, but more cargoes are expected as the export duty declines to $86/MT in November (from $106 in October).
A weaker ruble and low stock levels continue to support Russian FOB values, while improved logistics and port capacity may help stabilize prices toward year-end.
Turkey and Mediterranean Demand
Turkey remains the main import hub for Black Sea sunflower oil. The government reduced import duties on crude SFO to 30% at the start of October, aiming to control domestic food inflation and secure supply for refiners.
TMO’s recent CFR tender for 18,000 tons shows steady demand, but buyers are resisting prices above $1,300 CIF. Importers across the Mediterranean — including Egypt and Italy — also report sufficient stocks and are cautious with new purchases at current levels.
Weather and Logistics Factors
Rains in northern Ukraine and power shortages across several regions have slowed harvest progress and port operations.
So far, no major weather threats have been reported in Russia or Kazakhstan, and late-season moisture may even improve yields there.
The ongoing war in Ukraine continues to pose a major threat to logistics and export reliability, with periodic disruptions in energy supply and port infrastructure adding uncertainty to shipping schedules.
Market Outlook: Supported, But Upside Limited
Despite current firmness, most trade desks now describe the tone as “supported but capped.”
- Better Russian supply and lower duties could increase export availability.
- Softer palm and soybean oil prices are easing global edible-oil pressure, limiting how far sunflower oil can climb.
- Freight rates on Black Sea–Med routes have stabilized, and destination buyers are holding off on restocking above $1,300 CIF.
Unless Ukraine’s logistics worsen again, prices are more likely to stabilize or ease slightly into November rather than rise further. The short-term floor remains strong, but the market’s ability to move higher looks limited.
