In my October 2025 update, I wrote that the sunflower oil market might stabilize as Russian exports increased and global vegetable-oil prices softened.
But as November unfolded, the Black Sea market proved more resilient than expected, supported by a smaller Ukrainian crop, slow farmer selling, and persistent logistics pressure.
Ukraine: Smaller Crop, Slower Exports
Harvest progress has accelerated in the past two weeks, with around 90 % of the area collected.
Final output now looks set near 11 – 11.5 million tons, broadly unchanged from mid-October estimates but still the lowest since 2015.
Improved yields in central regions have only partially offset drought losses in the south.
Crushing margins remain tight, and processors continue prioritizing the domestic market.
Export liquidity is thin, CPT port bids hover around US $1 230 – 1 240 / t — while freight and insurance costs keep delivered prices firm.
Russia: Duty Pressure Limits Exports
Russia’s harvest is roughly 80–82 % complete, producing about 15 million tons so far.
The season forecast has been revised down to 17.2–17.5 million tons, trimmed from 19 MMT earlier due to dryness in the Volga and Central regions.
Despite strong crushing activity, export flow has lagged expectations.
The December export duty is projected to rise to ≈ $110 / t (₽10 600), keeping FOB Black Sea offers near US $1 200 – 1 230 / t and limiting additional supply to the market.
Mediterranean & Asian Demand
Turkey remains the key destination for Black Sea sunflower oil, with CIF Mersin offers in the low US $1 300s / t.
Buyers are cautious above that level, but refiners continue securing volumes ahead of winter demand.
Egypt and Southern Europe are largely covered through November, while buying from Jeddah and Aqaba has slowed as inventories remain adequate.
Global Context
The sunflower complex continues to trade at a premium to palm and soybean oil, underscoring its comparatively tight fundamentals.
Global vegetable-oil prices have softened, but sunflower oil is holding firm due to:
- energy and logistics constraints in Ukraine,
- lower Russian output and rising duties,
- consistent Turkish and EU refining demand.
Outlook: Firm but Vulnerable
Sunflower Oil Market November 2025, with the Black Sea harvest nearly finished, near-term availability remains limited.
Short-term prices are expected to stay near US $1 250 CPT Ukraine / US $1 300 CIF Med, with upside capped by weaker palm and soy oil.
If Ukrainian logistics improve or Russian exporters accelerate pre-duty shipments, mild softening could emerge in December.
For now, however, the sunflower oil market remains supported, steady, and sensitive, a balance that defines this post-harvest season.
